Yesterday’s post about the economy needs amplification, and I need to add three more guys to my team.
The amplification needed is in understanding why Larry Summers’ three year time horizon for observing cause and effect relationships in the economy is too short.
And I need to add three more guys to my team because, well, with Spring Training less than a week away, nine players on my team just seems like the right number.
The first guy I’m going to add to the team is someone I’m surprised I didn’t include at the beginning. His name is Buzz Holling, the Canadian ecologist and father of resilience theory. Holling developed and first presented his theory of resilience back in the early 1970s. Holling recognized that certain natural systems persist in stable states while others flip into unstable states in the face of changes in ecosystem variables. The features that cause such “regime shifts” can be natural or human, and resilience theory describes not only such processes in nature but also in human sociopolitical institutions.
Key to understanding resilience is understanding that there are critical thresholds between stable states, and that each social-ecological region is “nested” in a larger system (with slower changing variables) and typically surrounds a smaller system (with faster changing variables). It is the complex interplay between stable and unstable systems, with both slow and fast-changing variables, and multiple critical thresholds, that makes Larry Summers’ talking about the economy in three, five, or even 10 year increments too short to be responsible.
So with Buzz Holling on my team of guys I’m up to seven: my grandson Silas, John MacMurray, J. S. Bach, Spencer Huffman, Manny Machado, Roger Federer, and Holling.
Here’s the batting order that makes the most sense to me right now:
Leading off and playing second base – the feisty, provocative Spencer Huffman
Batting second and playing center field – Buzz Holling, a resourceful, creative batsman who truly understands the game.
Batting third and playing shortstop – Roger Federer, pure athletic talent and golden boy charisma.
clean up hitter – TBA
Batting fifth and playing third base – Manny Machado, who can anchor the middle of the line-up with speed and developing power, and plays third base like a god.
Batting sixth and catching – J. S. Bach, who calls a great game, handles pitchers well, but is slow afoot.
Batting seventh and playing right field – the lanky, somewhat dreamy and idealistic John MacMurray, who doesn’t hit for a high average, but can hit it out of the park occasionally.
Batting eighth and playing center field – the even lankier, moody, greatest president ever, Abe Lincoln. Welcome to the Team of Guys, Abe! I’m sure you’re going to be a big contributor!
Batting ninth and pitching – the obviously gifted Silas Kardon, who, though he cannot yet walk, has shown that he can wave his arms around.
But who to get to bat clean up?
I need a guy with power who can play left field. A good arm would be an asset. Ah, I see his face coming into view now… Let’s give it up for Martin Luther King, Jr., a clutch hitter with a great natural instinct for game-on-the-line situations!